The NBA offseason is less than a week away, and we are starting to get leaks about where certain players stand. Trying to get a jump on the moves of certain players can really help you take advantage of futures bets compounded with your own beliefs before the rumor occurs. For example, I want to find possible win totals that I already like and then attack them one way or another based on potential changes.
Knicks Losing Free Agent Momentum
Andre Iguodala made headlines Monday morning on ESPN’s First Take by stating that, “Nobody’s going to the Knicks, sorry.” How much validity is there to that statement? I’m not entirely sure, but I do think that things are very much trending away from the Knicks.
We have heard rumors that the Nets only want Kyrie Irving if they can get KD, but there are also people disputing those reports. Either way, the Knicks are now pretty clearly playing second fiddle to the Nets when it comes to Irving, and Iguodala is someone that should know what Durant is currently thinking.
With all of the surrounding data behind Iguodala’s additional claim, I think you can look to attack the Knicks’ team wins total on certain books. There are some books that have seemingly adjusted to this concept that the Knicks will still be in rebuild mode next season. However, I have found sites listing this total as high as 35, which provides great value on the under.
Horford Explores Free Agency
Al Horford shocked a lot of people in the industry last week when reports came out that he planned on exploring free agency. The even more shocking development was the report that the Celtics internally believe that they will start next season without Kyrie Irving and Al Horford.
Kyrie’s season and future really took a downturn at the halfway point of the season, and we could all see the writing on the wall that he prefers to be gone in free agency. Horford had never let out similar vibes, so much so that he has not been talked about in free agency at all.
Horford is 33 years old and should be on the downslope of his career. However, Horford is one of the better leaders in the league on and off the court, something very valuable to some teams. Horford’s overall production has still been very solid in recent years, and he still plays like a real, 30-minute starter in the NBA.
The two names most tied to Horford right now are the Clippers and the Mavericks. I really would be surprised if the Pelicans are not calling him up and asking him to listen to offers. I think that both the Mavericks and Pelicans could use Horford and have a clear void that Horford could fill instantly.
Horford does not demand the ball, he is a good defender, he can make shots, and he can teach young players how to play winning basketball. The Mavericks are moving into a win-now mode with the addition of Porzingis and Doncic last season, and we all know that owner Mark Cuban wants to be aggressive in free agency to build a winning team.
The Pelicans were reportedly looking into trading for Kevin Love because they wanted a veteran stretch 4 for their roster. Horford is more like a stretch 5 in the modern NBA, but Horford is just way better than Love at this point because he is a more well-rounded and durable player.
I think that both the Mavericks and the Pelicans are set to jump up the ranks of the West this season with their additional pieces, and I like the over 41 and 34, respectively. With the pending Horford news in the balance, I don’t think that either of these odds price in Horford’s potential presence.
I want the over on both team totals right now. Then I can get increased value if Horford or anyone else does sign with these teams. Both have the cap space to add impact players, and the price doesn’t reflect that right now.