While it may be one of the most cynical betting strategies around, what’s known as “Fading the Public” has been proven time and again to be one of the most successful. As the name suggests, fading the public is, essentially, betting with the house. The rule in sports betting is that the bookies always win and, therefore, if you want to win, you need to bet with them, not the gambling public.
What is Fading the Public?
In order to fade the public, you only need to do two things: know where the public money is and then bet the other way. As we all know, the lines are set by the sportsbooks. The fact that they get to set the lines gives them an edge and, of course, they take advantage of that edge.
When you see an oddsmakers’ line or point spread, that number is not made to handicap the game, even up the sides, or close a gap between the two teams. Those lines and point spreads are only set in order to persuade you to wager. That’s all, and this is much different than what most people assume.
So, if you know where the majority of the gambling public’s money is and wager the opposite way, you, just as the sportsbook, will come out ahead in the long run. So now, how do you know where that public money is?
Watch the Lines
The lines actually serve a much bigger purpose than handicapping the game. The line is the best indicator of where the gambling public’s money is being played. Before a game begins, the lines are set well in advance. However, as the wagers start coming in, those lines will be moved by the sportsbook. They do this to keep even amounts of money on both sides of the bet. That way, they collect off the losers and then short change the winners via the juice, ensuring a profit for the sportsbook.
Of course, they can not always pull this off. So, if there is too much money on one side of a bet, the sportsbook will change the lines to attract more gamblers to the other side. The more money they need, the more the line moves. Therefore, in order to fade the public successfully, you have to watch the line movements to note those line changes.
Football Works Best
It is best to start with NFL and NCAA football games to learn to fade the public. These games are a week apart, and you’ll have plenty of time to watch the lines move. Football is the most gambled-on sport, so, over a week’s time, you know the lines will move. Here’s an example of the line movement you’ll need to spot.
Let’s say the Browns are playing at the Steelers and Pittsburgh is an 8-point favorite. Then the wagers start coming in, and more people are taking the points than giving them. This will make the sportsbook lower the spread to -7.5 or -7. Still, more are taking the points, so the sportsbook lowers it again to -6.5. Still, people are taking the points, so it is lowered again to -6. This proves the majority of the money will be on the Browns plus the points. Fading the public means you would take the Steelers and give the points. Now, not only are you betting with the house, you’re getting a better line too. Welcome to fading the public.
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